2026 MWC Shanghai Market Analysis: 6G from concept to deployment, satellite internet cost reduction becomes new focus
6G technical paths converge, business closed loop still under exploration
Walking into the 6G industry ecosystem exhibition area in Hall N3 of MWC Shanghai, the five sections—Beijing 6G Lab general area, communication enhancement, integrated sensing and communication, integrated communication-computing-intelligence, and space-terrestrial integration—clearly break down the core vision of 6G technology. On-site staff explained that this is the first time MWC Shanghai has set up a dedicated hall for 6G, sending a clear industry signal: 6G has moved from concept discussion to the critical stage of system verification.
"If last year people were still debating what 6G should do, this year the debate is how to do it and what trade-offs to make," a technician at the Beijing 6G Lab general area told reporters. Currently, the three major enhancement paths—integrated sensing and communication, AI-native, and space-air-ground integration—have basically formed industry consensus, and key technologies such as terahertz communication and intelligent metasurfaces have entered prototype verification stages.
The deployment pace of the upstream industry chain is clearly accelerating. At this exhibition, Qualcomm demonstrated an end-to-end 6G prototype system; GalaxySpace publicly displayed its self-developed second-generation satellite direct-to-phone phased array antenna for the first time in the 6G industry ecosystem area; vivo showcased its 6G pre-research prototype and technical roadmap. It is understood that unlike Xiaomi, which focuses on underlying transmission algorithms, and OPPO, which focuses on communication paradigm innovation, vivo's demo direction leans more toward end-to-end systems and application deployment. Its complete 6G test system covers the full chain including MR terminals, 6G terminal prototypes (UE), 6G base stations (RAN), and core networks.
An on-site representative from a domestic chip manufacturer said that the company's internal 6G pre-research team has doubled compared to last year, with the clear logic: "It's too late to start after the standard freezes; we must prepare technical reserves in advance."
However, compared to the enthusiasm upstream, terminal manufacturers are more cautious. When asking multiple phone brands about their 6G terminal plans in the 6G zone, reporters received responses mostly like "closely monitoring," and there were few consumer-level product demonstrations for 6G at booths. A 6G pre-research director from one of the world's top five phone manufacturers said in an informal exchange that it is still difficult to produce a clear 6G phone commercialization roadmap. The core reason is not insufficient technical capability, but the terminal side is still analyzing the path from user needs to application scenarios. In his view, the experience dividend of 5G has not yet been fully released, and the immersive holographic and multi-sensory scenarios envisioned for 6G are still some distance from mass consumer market.
The investment community is equally cautious. An early-stage investor focused on the TMT sector, after observing multiple demonstrations in the 6G zone, told reporters that while the technology's direction is impressive, from an investment perspective, 5G's capital returns are still in digestion period, while 6G requires massive R&D and network deployment investment, with uncertain exit cycles and return expectations. He admitted that at this stage, it is more about keeping track and observing, waiting for clearer commercial signals before taking action.
"Future Constellation": landscape initially settled, profitability path yet to be verified
Unlike the atmosphere of the 6G zone focusing on key technology verification, the newly established "Future Constellation" satellite industry zone shows a different industry rhythm—orbital landscape is taking initial shape, and participants have entered a phase of fine cultivation of resources and costs.
Domestic low-orbit broadband and narrowband constellation operators such as Spacety, Guodian Gaoke, and Yuanxin Satellite, along with international players like Iridium, all set up sizable booths. Spacety displayed real low-orbit satellite internet terminal equipment for scenarios like ocean-going vessels and desert mining areas; Guodian Gaoke focused on promoting landing cases of the Tianqi constellation in IoT; engineers from Yuanxin Satellite even conducted a live connection, playing a video call test achieved through the "Qianfan Constellation."
"The competition for satellite internet orbit and spectrum resources has ended; the key now is large-scale deployment and cost control," said an on-site person from Guodian Gaoke. He revealed that the batch production cost of the company's narrowband communication payloads is continuously declining, but also pointed out that the user scale of satellite internet services has not yet reached breakeven point, and at least for the next few years, government and industry orders remain the basic revenue support.
In the process of forming a profit model, terminal cost is a noteworthy aspect. When talking about the material cost of satellite communication terminals at antenna and module manufacturer booths, reporters were told that costs are rapidly dropping and are ready to be integrated into mainstream phone designs, but most manufacturers did not disclose specific figures.
A business manager at the Iridium booth said that Iridium, relying on narrowband voice and low-speed data services, has achieved positive cash flow, but traditional market space is nearing saturation, and future growth needs to expand into IoT and emergency communication. Meanwhile, domestic low-orbit broadband constellations are still in the catch-up phase prioritizing scale, and breakeven will take time and user accumulation.
