On September 29, 2026, the Singapore SGX precious metals market saw renewed volatility. Gold prices continued their strong trend, approaching the $4,800 mark and hitting a new historical high; meanwhile, silver inventory plummeted 30%, triggering a surge in physical delivery premiums and reigniting market enthusiasm for risk-hedging allocations. These market changes not only reflect the uncertainty in the current global macroeconomy but also highlight the core value of precious metals as safe-haven assets. This article will conduct an in-depth analysis of the current SGX gold and silver market dynamics from multiple dimensions such as market data, supply-demand dynamics, and industry insights to provide references for investors.
Gold Nears $4,800: Drivers Behind the Historical High
As of September 29, 2026, the main gold futures contract on Singapore SGX was priced at $4,798 per ounce, up 1.2% from the previous trading day, just one step away from the $4,800 mark. This price not only refreshed the year’s high but also broke through the previous historical high of $4,700, becoming a focal point in the precious metals market in recent years. The continuous rise in gold prices is driven by multiple factors.
First, geopolitical risks are the core support for gold’s strength. Recently, the Middle East situation has become tense again, with the escalation of conflicts between Iran and Israel triggering market concerns about energy supply disruptions. Additionally, political uncertainty in Europe is intensifying, with trade frictions after Brexit and policy adjustments after the French election increasing market demand for risk hedging. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold’s value stands out during risk events, attracting large capital inflows.
Second, the global central banks’ gold-buying spree provides long-term support for gold. Since 2026, global central banks have continued to increase their gold holdings, especially in emerging market countries. According to data from the World Gold Council, in the first half of 2026, global central banks’ net gold purchases reached 450 tons, a 15% year-on-year increase. Among them, central banks in China, India, Russia, and other countries significantly increased their gold purchases. The central banks’ gold-buying behavior not only increases physical demand for gold but also sends a signal to the market that “gold is an important reserve asset,” enhancing investors’ confidence.
Third, the recovery of inflation expectations is also an important factor for gold’s rise. In the second half of 2026, global inflation pressure has picked up, with inflation rates in major economies such as the US and the Eurozone exceeding the 2% target level. Although the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, market expectations of future rate cuts led to a decline in real interest rates, reducing the holding cost of gold and thus pushing up prices. Additionally, the rise in energy prices (such as crude oil breaking through $100 per barrel) also exacerbated inflation expectations, further supporting gold’s safe-haven attribute.
Silver Inventory Plummets 30%: Supply-Demand Imbalance Triggering Delivery Premium Surge
Unlike gold’s strength, the focus of the silver market is on the sharp decline in inventory. As of September 29, 2026, silver inventory on Singapore SGX decreased by 30% compared to the same period last month, falling to 120 tons, a new low in nearly three years. The sharp drop in inventory led to a surge in physical delivery premiums (i.e., the premium of spot price over futures price), with SGX silver delivery premiums currently reaching $5 per ounce, up $2.5 from the same period last month, hitting a new historical high.
The reasons for the decline in silver inventory are mainly two-fold: one is the surge in industrial demand, and the other is the increase in investment demand. From the perspective of industrial demand, the rapid development of the photovoltaic (PV) industry in 2026 has driven demand for silver. According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), global PV installations are expected to reach 300GW in 2026, a 20% year-on-year increase, and each GW of PV installation requires about 1.5 tons of silver. Additionally, the popularization of 5G networks has increased the demand for silver in electronic components, such as antennas and connectors. The growth in industrial demand has led to increased physical consumption of silver and a continuous decline in inventory.
From the perspective of investment demand, silver’s safe-haven attribute and low price have attracted large capital inflows. Compared to gold, silver has a lower price and higher volatility, making it a “safe-haven alternative” for many investors. Since 2026, the holdings of silver ETFs have continued to increase, reaching 120,000 tons globally as of September 29, a 18% year-on-year increase. The increase in investment demand has further exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance of silver, leading to inventory decline and a surge in delivery premiums.
What impact does the surge in delivery premiums have on the market? First, it reflects the tight situation in the silver spot market, indicating insufficient physical silver supply, and future prices may continue to rise. Second, the existence of delivery premiums increases the delivery cost of silver futures, which may lead to a deviation between futures and spot prices, providing opportunities for arbitrage trading. For example, investors can obtain arbitrage profits by buying futures contracts and selling spot, but they need to pay attention to delivery risks and costs.
Industry Insights: Risk Hedging Allocation Window Reopens, How to Seize Opportunities?
At present, the market changes in gold and silver provide new allocation opportunities for investors. Looking at gold, approaching the $4,800 mark, although it may face short-term callback pressure, in the long run, geopolitical risks, central banks’ gold purchases, and inflation expectations will still support its price. Investors can consider allocating gold on dips, especially physical gold or gold ETFs, as long-term safe-haven assets.
Looking at silver, the plummeting inventory and surging delivery premiums indicate an intensifying supply-demand imbalance, and future prices are expected to continue rising. Investors can focus on silver’s industrial and investment demand, especially the development of the PV and 5G industries. Additionally, silver’s delivery data (such as SGX inventory changes and delivery premiums) are important signals that can help investors judge the market’s supply-demand situation. For example, when inventory decreases and delivery premiums rise, it indicates market tightness, and investors can consider buying silver; when inventory increases and delivery premiums fall, it indicates sufficient supply, and investors can consider selling.
For short-term traders, it is necessary to pay attention to capital flows and market trends. SGX’s metal capital flow data (such as inflow and outflow of main funds) can help judge market sentiment. For example, when main funds continuously flow into gold or silver, it indicates that the market is optimistic about their future trends, and investors can consider following the buy; when main funds flow out, it indicates that market sentiment is weakening, and cautious operation is needed.
Additionally, the gold-silver ratio is also an important reference indicator. The current gold-silver ratio is about 70, lower than the historical average (80-100), indicating that silver is relatively cheaper than gold, and there may be arbitrage opportunities. Investors can consider buying silver and selling gold to obtain returns as the ratio returns to the average level. However, it should be noted that the change in the gold-silver ratio is affected by multiple factors, such as industrial demand, investment demand, and geopolitical risks, and needs to be comprehensively judged in combination with other indicators.
Summary
On September 29, 2026, the Singapore SGX precious metals market saw gold approaching the $4,800 mark, with silver inventory plummeting 30% triggering a surge in delivery premiums, and the market’s risk-hedging allocation window reopening. Gold’s strength stems from geopolitical risks, central banks’ gold purchases, and inflation expectations, while silver’s inventory decline is driven by industrial and investment demand. Investors should combine supply-demand data, capital flows, and market trends to seize allocation opportunities while paying attention to risk control. As safe-haven assets, precious metals will still play an important role in the context of increasing global uncertainty and are worth long-term attention.
